Every quarter, J.P. Morgan's Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities team, led by Bob Michele, CIO, meets to discuss and debate macro-economic trends and sector developments. The team then determines its fixed income outlook for the next three to six months and identifies its best investment ideas.

IN BRIEF

  • We have raised the probability that markets will continue to price in Above Trend Growth from 65% to 70%, and we have reduced the near-term probability of recession to zero (from 5%), recognizing that the flattening yield curve has been a function of low inflation and continued global quantitative easing, not imminent recession.
  • For now, our view is consistent with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) projections-strong growth, contained inflation and a gradual path towards normalized real yields, with the Fed raising the fed funds rate three times in 2018. However, if inflation starts coming in above target, we can see four rate hikes. We expect a modest rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, to end 2018 at 2.75%-3.25%.
  • For the next three to six months, our best ideas continue to be in credit, particularly sectors that offer the attributes we would want should rates start to rise: significant spread, room for tightening and good cash flow.
  • We like European bank capital (Additional Tier 1), U.S. high yield and securitized credit. Cognizant of the risk of higher rates, we are managing duration risk by shorting government bonds.

SCENARIO PROBABILITIES (%)

 

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Views are as of December 13, 2017.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE NEAR TERM; GOING FORWARD, IT ALL COMES DOWN TO INFLATION

Once again, nothing is cheap and valuations are less compelling. But for several quarters, we have been repeating the mantra “Don’t fight the Feds” as the world’s central banks, in aggregate, continued to perpetuate the Goldilocks environment of high growth and low rates that is supportive of risk assets. We expect this to continue for our forecast period (the next three to six months), although change is on the horizon. The question we asked ourselves at our most recent Investment Quarterly (IQ), held in December in New York, was: “As the central banks move towards policy normalization, are there risks building that could alter the benign trajectory of rates?”

Global growth is strong and shows no signs of abating. Economic data continues to improve across both the developed and emerging markets. Our own proprietary economic health indicator shows the G4 economies approaching pre-crisis levels. In the U.S., fiscal policy has the potential to provide additional stimulus to an already strong economy. As a result, we raised the probability that the markets will continue to price in Above Trend Growth from 65% to 70%. At the same time, we reduced the near-term probability of recession to zero (from 5%), recognizing that the flattening yield curve has been a function of low inflation and continued global quantitative easing, not imminent recession.

Despite strong growth, inflation has been stubbornly low. In the face of low inflation, the world’s central banks seem content to turn a blind eye towards the potential risks of ultra-accommodative policy. Markets are going up, unemployment is going down. Why do anything? On the other hand, central banks presumably want to be ahead of inflation, not behind the curve. What could tilt the central banks into a more aggressive tightening mode?

Inflation levels are caught in a tug-of-war between downward structural forces (technology improvements, price transparency) and upward cyclical forces (economic growth, tight labor markets), with the structural pressures continuing to deliver inflation print disappointments. But what if tightness in the labor markets finally leads to higher wage growth? Globally, investment growth is picking up, and it is broad-based. In the U.S., leading indicators suggest that investment momentum will continue, and could be further fueled by tax reform. Historically, investment growth leads to productivity growth. But what if it just leads to wage growth? Alternatively, we could get productivity, but the related gains could accrue to corporations, which would be even more inflationary.

If inflation starts to pick up, will the central banks remain complacent? We believe that it’s too early to tell the data hasn’t tilted yet and we expect no change over the next three to six months. But if inflation does start coming in above target, we could easily see the Fed raise rates four times in 2018, not the three times the market is expecting. If both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan also start moving to higher rates at the same time that central bank balance sheet expansion turns negative (currently projected for around October 2018), then bond investors are not being compensated for the risks, volatility will rise and the second half of 2018 could be much more difficult for the markets.

U.S. rate expectations

For now, our view remains consistent with the Fed’s projections growth will remain strong (despite the typical negative seasonality in the first quarter), inflation will stay contained and the Fed will remain on a gradual path towards normalized real yields by raising the fed funds rate three times. We believe that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury will also rise modestly, ending 2018 at 2.75%-3.25%.

Risks

Risks to our forecast are continued sub-trend inflation prints, a significant correction in the equity markets or disappointing Chinese growth. All would lead to Sub Trend Growth and continued central bank accommodation. The probability of these risks is unchanged from last quarter (25%). Crisis, as always, is a risk, but we believe that risk remains small (5%).

STRATEGY IMPLICATIONS

For the next three to six months, consistent with our views on global growth, our best ideas continue to be in credit. In particular, we like those sectors that provide significant spread, room for tightening and good cash flow-all important attributes if rates start to rise.

Returning to its top spot among our best ideas is European bank capital (Additional Tier 1). Spreads are attractive, growth in Europe is strong and the banking system is healing: capital ratios are up and the possibility of equity conversion is remote.

U.S. high yield also remains a favorite. Global growth continues to support corporate profitability. Spreads in the mid-300s, while not wide, have room to compress; past end-of-cycle spreads have neared just 250 basis points. And while “high” yield may be a bit of an overstatement, spreads are more than enough to compensate for extremely low default rates.

Consistent with a tight labor market, the U.S. consumer is healthy. We like securitized credit, as the structures provide significant credit enhancement, attractive yields in the short end of the curve, and the benefit of quick amortization, which can provide a source of cash as rates rise.

While we like credit and credit spreads, we remain cognizant of the risk of higher rates. Given our view, we want to own the bonds and the positive credit convexity while managing the duration risks by shorting government bonds.

2018 OUTLOOK

Since the first quarter of 2016, the markets have been flooded with the overly generous monetary accommodation of the central banks. Encouraged by a persistent global economic recovery, that excess liquidity has depressed market volatility and inflated asset prices. As the central banks continue with their normalization, we expect to see an inflection point in the level of volatility and valuation across markets in 2018. It is difficult to know when we will see the tipping point, but signs would include more volatility, deeper corrections and investors demanding more return potential before taking incremental risk. For our part, we will rely on our research and be sure not to become an inadvertent seller of liquidity.

SCENARIO PROBABILITIES AND INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS: 1Q18

Every quarter, lead portfolio managers and sector specialists from across J.P. Morgan’s Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities platform gather to formulate our consensus view on the near-term course (next three to six months) of the fixed income markets. In daylong discussions, we review the macroeconomic environment and sector-by-sector analyses based on three key research inputs: fundamentals, quantitative valuations and supply and demand technicals (FQTs). The table below summarizes our outlook over a range of potential scenarios, our assessment of the likelihood of each and their broad macro, financial and market implications.

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Views are as of December 13, 2017.
Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.




Important Disclaimer

Investments in bonds and other debt securities will change in value based on changes in interest rates. If rates rise, the value of these investments generally drops. Securities with greater interest rate sensitivity and longer maturities tend to produce higher yields, but are subject to greater fluctuations in value. Usually, the changes in the value of fixed income securities will not affect cash income generated, but may affect the value of your investment. Credit risk is the risk of loss of principal or loss of a financial reward stemming from a borrower’s failure to repay a loan or otherwise meet a contractual obligation. Credit risk arises whenever a borrower is expecting to use future cash flows to pay a current debt. Such default could result in losses to an investment in your portfolio.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from personal financial, legal, tax and other professional advisors that take into account all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor’s own situation.

Investing in foreign countries involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. Changes in currency exchange rates and differences in accounting and taxation policies in foreign countries can raise or lower returns. Also, some markets may not be as politically and economically stable. The risks associated with foreign securities may be increased in countries with less developed markets. These countries may have relatively unstable governments and less established market economies than developed countries. These countries may face greater social, economic, regulatory and political uncertainties. These risks make securities from less developed countries more volatile and less liquid than securities in more developed countries.

Fixed Income/Bonds are subject to interest rate risks. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.

The views contained herein are not to be taken as an advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own professional advisers, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be suitable to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. This communication is issued by the following entities: in the United Kingdom by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; in other EU jurisdictions by JPMorgan Asset Management (Europe) S.à r.l.; in Hong Kong by JF Asset Management Limited, or JPMorgan Funds (Asia) Limited, or JPMorgan Asset Management Real Assets (Asia) Limited; in India by JPMorgan Asset Management India Private Limited; in Singapore by JPMorgan Asset Management (Singapore) Limited, or JPMorgan Asset Management Real Assets (Singapore) Pte Ltd; in Taiwan by JPMorgan Asset Management (Taiwan) Limited; in Japan by JPMorgan Asset Management (Japan) Limited which is a member of the Investment Trusts Association, Japan, the Japan Investment Advisers Association, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association and the Japan Securities Dealers Association and is regulated by the Financial Services Agency (registration number “Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firm) No. 330”); in Korea by JPMorgan Asset Management (Korea) Company Limited; in Australia to wholesale clients only as defined in section 761A and 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) by JPMorgan Asset Management (Australia) Limited (ABN 55143832080) (AFSL 376919); in Brazil by Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.; in Canada for institutional clients’ use only by JPMorgan Asset Management (Canada) Inc., and in the United States by JPMorgan Distribution Services Inc. and J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc., both members of FINRA/SIPC.; and J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. In APAC, distribution is for Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan and Singapore. For all other countries in APAC, to intended recipients only.

Copyright 2017 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved

PI-GFIV_1Q18 | 0903c02a81d2d0a6











Download PDF


Robert Michele

 








Chief Investment Officer and Head of the Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Group








John Bilton


 

Head of the Global Strategy Team for the Multi-Asset Solutions Group.


Featured Funds 

JPMorgan Funds—Global Bond Opportunities Fund

 

Broaden the borders of your bond portfolio. The Fund provides flexible, high-conviction exposure across more than 15 fixed income sectors and 50 countries.


More about this fund