Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions - 2017 Edition

Our 2017 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions provide a consistent, cohesive set of estimates encompassing more than 50 asset and strategy classes, available in 10 base currencies. For 21 years investors and advisors have depended on our assumptions to inform their strategic asset allocation, build stronger portfolios and establish reasonable expectations for risks and returns over a 10- to 15-year time frame.

White Paper

Executive Summary

Correlation Matrix

A comprehensive and
detailed analysis of our forecasts.
A synopsis of our macro and
asset class assumption.
A compilation of the
numerical assumptions.
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2017 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions webcast

Join John Bilton, Head of Global Multi-Asset Strategy, Stephanie Flanders, Chief Market Strategist for the UK and Europe, Stephen Macklow-Smith, Portfolio Manager, European Equity Group, and Jonathan Griggs, Director of Applied Research for our Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Group, as they share highlights and key themes from the report, and how the LTCMA can empower better decisions.

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2017 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions videos

Recalibrating risk and returns: The game is up for static balanced investing, says John Bilton, Head of Global Multi-Asset Strategy.

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The Market Insights team

Our strategists provide market bulletins, macroeconomic articles and webconferences intended to provide you with the latest market information to make better informed investment decisions.

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NOT FOR RETAIL DISTRIBUTION: This communication has been prepared exclusively for institutional/wholesale/professional clients and qualified investors only as defined by local laws and regulations.

JPMAM Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions: Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. Please note that all information shown is based on qualitative analysis. Exclusive reliance on the above is not advised. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance. Note that these asset class and strategy assumptions are passive only–they do not consider the impact of active management. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. The outputs of the assumptions are provided for illustration/discussion purposes only and are subject to significant limitations. “Expected” or “Alpha” return estimates are subject to uncertainty and error. For example changes in the historical data from which it is estimated will result in different implications for asset class returns. Expected returns for each asset class conditional on an economic scenario; actual returns in the event the scenario comes to pass could be higher or lower, as they have been in the past, so an investor should not expect to achieve returns similar to the outputs shown herein. References to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Because of the inherent limitations of all models, potential investors should not rely exclusively on the model when making a decision. The model cannot account for the impact that economic, market, and other factors may have on the implementation and ongoing management of an actual investment portfolio. Unlike actual portfolio outcomes, the model outcomes do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, expenses, taxes and other factors that could impact the future returns. The model assumptions are passive only—they do not consider the impact of active management. A manager’s ability to achieve similar outcomes is subject to risk factors over which the manager may have no or limited control.

The views contained herein are not to be taken as an advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of writing, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own professional advisers, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be suitable to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide.